Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 13.154548 15.029466 17.060279 19.421283 22.088602 25.006485 28.438299
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 10.259385 12.743210 15.647259 19.285145 23.711981 28.915292 35.486249
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 8.611887 11.286797 14.570955 18.884845 24.386139 31.149836 40.077941
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.530154 10.348396 13.960726 18.907057 25.477832 33.877681 45.397429
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.812123 9.752648 13.663895 19.213662 26.847326 36.934373 51.222351
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 6.168943 9.169543 13.298183 19.349612 27.940589 39.637453 56.695215
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.540416 8.528736 12.772144 19.181829 28.551096 41.663995 61.304855
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 5.105539 8.117672 12.520981 19.358694 29.624531 44.358117 66.969981
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.845949 7.938532 12.582097 19.978443 31.358322 48.070134 74.292688
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.416641 7.452354 12.132657 19.776455 31.823387 49.917119 78.929421
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.853079 6.697910 11.202020 18.744902 30.921974 49.625565 80.268175
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.668685 6.546649 11.210787 19.195161 32.358436 52.975316 87.390386
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.480796 6.379310 11.189489 19.609368 33.788508 56.438130 94.965298
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.194350 6.016102 10.813516 19.403514 34.184099 58.269672 100.026209
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.909603 5.628096 10.360518 19.023483 34.245199 59.533853 104.191151
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.716911 5.389514 10.146850 19.038226 34.971224 61.924689 110.347515
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.586480 5.254615 10.104979 19.349447 36.223975 65.258696 118.267394
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.441714 5.079008 9.974016 19.485420 37.165536 68.097323 125.467797
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.268647 4.832398 9.691267 19.316820 37.537059 69.947876 131.013775
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.154287 4.692528 9.598335 19.494760 38.548844 72.972977 138.789586
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.101219 4.672952 9.734726 20.118654 40.427693 77.647772 149.776424
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.957617 4.451979 9.458377 19.915315 40.713733 79.417777 155.509300
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.737673 4.048766 8.786557 18.876916 39.313216 77.974144 155.165191